ISM Services Returns to Growth

03-Feb-23  10:29 ET

10-Year:  - 1 3/32  3.543%  
US/JPY: 130.93
EUR/US: 1.0852

Data Recon

• The ISM Services PMI for January increased to 55.2% (Briefing.com consensus 50.3%) from a downwardly revised 49.2% (from 49.6%) in December. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the January reading reflects a return to growth territory for the services sector.
• The key takeaway from the report is that business activity for the services sector, which comprises the largest swath of U.S. economic activity, quickly rebounded into growth mode after contracting for the first time since May 2020 in December. That should be seen as supportive for the soft-landing scenario.
  • The New Orders Index jumped to 60.4% from 45.2%.
  • The Business Activity/Production Index rose to 60.4% from 53.5%.
  • The Prices Index dipped to 67.8% from 68.1%.
  • The Employment Index moved to 50.0% from 49.4%.
  • The Supplier Deliveries Index increased to 50.0% from 48.5%.
  • The Backlog of Orders Index rose to 52.9% from 51.5%.

Yield Check:

•   2-yr: +18 bps to 4.26%
•   3-yr: +18 bps to 3.94%
•   5-yr: +17 bps to 3.66%
• 10-yr: +14 bps to 3.54%
• 30-yr: +9 bps to   3.65%

Bond Market Update

Prop. 19 passes, but questions about California property tax measure remain

Same-sex spouses can now get Social Security Survivor Benefits

ISM Services Returns to Growth

03-Feb-23  10:29 ET

10-Year:  - 1 3/32  3.543%  
US/JPY: 130.93
EUR/US: 1.0852

Data Recon

• The ISM Services PMI for January increased to 55.2% (Briefing.com consensus 50.3%) from a downwardly revised 49.2% (from 49.6%) in December. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the January reading reflects a return to growth territory for the services sector.
• The key takeaway from the report is that business activity for the services sector, which comprises the largest swath of U.S. economic activity, quickly rebounded into growth mode after contracting for the first time since May 2020 in December. That should be seen as supportive for the soft-landing scenario.
  • The New Orders Index jumped to 60.4% from 45.2%.
  • The Business Activity/Production Index rose to 60.4% from 53.5%.
  • The Prices Index dipped to 67.8% from 68.1%.
  • The Employment Index moved to 50.0% from 49.4%.
  • The Supplier Deliveries Index increased to 50.0% from 48.5%.
  • The Backlog of Orders Index rose to 52.9% from 51.5%.

Yield Check:

•   2-yr: +18 bps to 4.26%
•   3-yr: +18 bps to 3.94%
•   5-yr: +17 bps to 3.66%
• 10-yr: +14 bps to 3.54%
• 30-yr: +9 bps to   3.65%

Bond Market Update

Prop. 19 passes, but questions about California property tax measure remain

Same-sex spouses can now get Social Security Survivor Benefits